국문요약 ···································································································· 3

제1장 서론 ································································································11

1. 연구의 배경과 목적 ···············································································11

2. 연구 범위와 주요 내용 ··········································································13

제2장 팬데믹의 경제적 파급효과 ······························································14

1. 코로나19 이전 21세기 팬데믹 ·····························································14

2. 팬데믹의 경제적 파급효과에 대한 선행연구 ········································16

가. 중·단기 효과 ···················································································16

나. 장기 효과 ························································································18

다. 팬데믹과 무역 ·················································································20

제3장 코로나19 이전 팬데믹과 무역 ························································22

1. 팬데믹의 동태적 효과 ···········································································23

가. 실증분석모형과 데이터 ···································································23

나. 분석 결과 ························································································27

2. 팬데믹 심각성 ·······················································································32

3. 공급충격 또는 수요충격 ·······································································37

제4장 코로나19와 무역 ·············································································46

1. 주요 국가의 수출입 변화 ······································································46

2. 실증분석모형과 데이터 ·········································································48

3. 분석 결과 ······························································································51

차 례 8 • 코로나19가 무역에 미치는 영향

가. 기본 분석 결과 ················································································51

나. 강건성 검증(robustness check) ···················································54

제5장 결론 및 정책적 시사점 ···································································58

참고문헌 ····································································································63

부록 ···········································································································70

Executive Summary ··············································································71

표 차례 • 9 표 2-1. 팬데믹·에피데믹 발생 ···································································15

표 3-1. 주요 변수의 기초 통계량 ······························································27

표 3-2. 팬데믹이 수출에 미치는 영향(EK-Tobit모형) ····························28

표 3-3. 팬데믹이 수출에 미치는 영향(고정효과모형) ·······························30

표 3-4. 팬데믹이 수입에 미치는 영향(EK–Tobit모형) ·····························31

표 3-5. 팬데믹이 수입에 미치는 영향(고정효과모형) ·······························32

표 3-6. 팬데믹 심각성과 수출(EK-Tobit모형) ·········································34

표 3-7. 팬데믹 심각성과 수출(고정효과모형) ···········································35

표 3-8. 팬데믹 심각성과 수입(EK-Tobit모형) ·········································36

표 3-9. 팬데믹 심각성과 수입(고정효과모형) ···········································36

표 3-10. 팬데믹이 중간재 수입에 미치는 영향(EK-Tobit모형) ················41

표 3-11. 팬데믹이 중간재 수입에 미치는 영향(고정효과모형) ···················41

표 3-12. 팬데믹이 최종재 수입에 미치는 영향(EK-Tobit모형) ················41

표 3-13. 팬데믹이 최종재 수입에 미치는 영향(고정효과모형) ···················42

표 3-14. 팬데믹이 최종재 수출에 미치는 영향(EK-Tobit모형) ················42

표 3-15. 팬데믹이 최종재 수출에 미치는 영향(고정효과모형) ···················42

표 3-16. 팬데믹이 중간재 수출에 미치는 영향(EK-Tobit모형) ················43

표 3-17. 팬데믹이 중간재 수출에 미치는 영향(고정효과모형) ···················43

표 4-1. 주요 변수의 기초통계량 ································································50

표 4-2. 기본 분석 결과 ··············································································52

표 4-3. ICT 발전지수 임계값과 국가 수 ···················································53

표 4-4. 수출국의 추가적인 특징과 코로나19가 수출에 미치는 영향 ·······55

표 4-5. ICT 접근 및 이용과 수출 ······························································57

표 5-1. 한국 수출 전기 대비 증감률 ··························································60

표 차례 10 • 코로나19가 무역에 미치는 영향 그림 3-1. 수요충격과 무역 ········································································39