1. Introduction

Political instability refers to unpredictable policies, fragile institutions, frequent leadership changes, coups, civil unrest, or a lack of legitimacy. This instability can result in state dysfunction, social disorder, and negatively affect economic growth and productivity (Aisen & Veiga, 2013). In West Africa, political instability is a recurring challenge that significantly shapes the region’s socio-political landscape. Most West African countries experienced relative political stability during the first decades after independence, particularly from the 1960s to the early 1980s. From the early 2000s, however, the region experienced a marked rise in coups and attempted coups, with 8 successful coups between 1963 and 2003, increasing to 17 between 2004 and 2023 (see appendix). Countries such as Mali (2020, 2021), Burkina Faso (2022), and Niger (2023) experienced significant political instability, which military leaders often justified by citing corruption, loss of trust in civilian leadership, or failure to address jihadist insurgencies. These three countries withdrew from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in January 2025 after ECOWAS demanded the restoration of democratic rule (Reuter, 2025). In other cases, resource competition and unresolved grievances, such as in Guinea (2008, 2021) and Mali (2012), contributed to unrest in the region (Everiss, 2021; Prospect, 2020).

Economic and social conditions have contributed to political instability in the region. In the late 2010s, increasing inequality, chronic food shortages, persistent unemployment, and government inefficiency led to mass uprisings, often led by the middle class and educated youth, as seen during the Arab Springs (Cubitt, 2014; Diwan, 2013). These
events highlight the connection between socio-economic performance and political instability.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------